- Honda and Nissan expected to begin merger talks
- 'Draconian' Vietnam internet law heightens free speech fears
- Israeli women mobilise against ultra-Orthodox military exemptions
- Asian markets track Wall St rally as US inflation eases rate worries
- Tens of thousands protest in Serbian capital over fatal train station accident
- Trump vows to 'stop transgender lunacy' as a top priority
- 'Who's next?': Misinformation and online threats after US CEO slaying
- Only 12 trucks delivered food, water in North Gaza Governorate since October: Oxfam
- Langers edge Tiger and son Charlie in PNC Championship playoff
- Explosive batsman Jacobs gets New Zealand call-up for Sri Lanka series
- Holders PSG edge through on penalties in French Cup
- Daniels throw five TDs as Commanders down Eagles
- Atalanta fight back to take top spot in Serie A, Roma hit five
- Mancini admits regrets over leaving Italy for Saudi Arabia
- Run machine Ayub shines as Pakistan sweep South Africa
- Slovak PM Fico on surprise visit to Kremlin
- 'Incredible' Liverpool must stay focused: Slot
- Maresca 'absolutely happy' as title-chasing Chelsea drop points in Everton draw
- Salah happy wherever career ends after inspiring Liverpool rout
- Three and easy as Dortmund move into Bundesliga top six
- Liverpool hit Spurs for six, Man Utd embarrassed by Bournemouth
- Netanyahu vows to act with 'force, determination' against Yemen's Huthis
- Ali hat-trick helps champions Ahly crush Belouizdad
- Salah stars as rampant Liverpool hit Spurs for six
- Syria's new leader says all weapons to come under 'state control'
- 'Sonic 3' zips to top of N.America box office
- Rome's Trevi Fountain reopens to limited crowds
- Mbappe strikes as Real Madrid down Sevilla
- Pope again condemns 'cruelty' of Israeli strikes on Gaza
- Lonely this Christmas: Vendee skippers in low-key celebrations on high seas
- Troubled Man Utd humiliated by Bournemouth
- 2 US pilots shot down over Red Sea in 'friendly fire' incident: military
- Man Utd embarrassed by Bournemouth, Chelsea held at Everton
- France awaits fourth government of the year
- Death toll in Brazil bus crash rises to 41
- Odermatt stays hot to break Swiss World Cup wins record
- Neville says Rashford's career at Man Utd nearing 'inevitable ending'
- Syria's new leader vows not to negatively interfere in Lebanon
- Germany pledges security inquest after Christmas market attack
- Putin vows 'destruction' on Ukraine after Kazan drone attack
- Understated Usyk seeks recognition among boxing legends
- France awaits appointment of new government
- Cyclone Chido death toll rises to 94 in Mozambique
- Stokes out of England's Champions Trophy squad
- Gaza rescuers say Israeli strikes kill 28
- Sweet smell of success for niche perfumes
- 'Finally, we made it!': Ho Chi Minh City celebrates first metro
- Angry questions in Germany after Christmas market attack
- China's Zheng pulls out of season-opening United Cup
- Minorities fear targeted attacks in post-revolution Bangladesh
Oil majors' climate visions 'inconsistent' with Paris targets
Global decarbonisation scenarios envisioned by oil and gas majors are incompatible with the Paris climate deal temperature goals aimed at averting devastating heating, according to research published Tuesday.
The landmark 2015 accord saw nations commit to limit planetary heating to "well below" two degrees Celsius (3.6 Farenheit) above pre-industrial levels and to work towards a safer 1.5-C warming cap.
Writing in the journal Nature Communications, an international team of experts analysed six emissions scenarios from three European energy giants -- Equinor, BP and Shell -- as well as those produced by the International Energy Agency.
They then compared the analysed pathways to scenarios outlined in a special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on 1.5C of warming.
The team used these to evaluate peak and end-of-century temperatures under each scenario, noting that average global temperatures may decline by 2100 in some scenarios after peaking.
They also assessed the underlying energy system changes that drive emissions and could lead to a given scenario meeting -- or failing to meet -- the Paris temperature goals.
"Most of the scenarios we evaluated would be classified as inconsistent with the Paris Agreement as they fail to limit warming to 'well below 2C', let alone 1.5C, and would exceed the 1.5C warming limit by a significant margin," said Robert Brecha of the Climate Analytics think tank and co-lead author of the study.
"Energy system transformation is critical to reaching the Paris Agreement warming limit, and decision makers need sound and transparent scientific assessments. This paper adds to that transparency."
- 'Catastrophic impacts' -
The analysis found that Shell's Sky scenario would lead to warming of 1.81C by 2069 -- a far cry from 1.5C.
A Shell spokeswoman told AFP that the Sky pathway was just one of several envisaged by the company.
The team responsible for modelling scenarios "makes assessments based on plausible assumptions and quantifications, which are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes, let alone our energy transition plan", she added.
Equinor's Rebalance scenario would see warming peak at 1.73C above pre-industrial levels by 2060, according to the study.
BP's Rapid scenario would see peak warming of 1.73C by 2058, while its Net Zero scenario would see median warming peak at 1.65C, the analysis found.
Equinor declined to comment, while BP did not respond to a comment request.
Only the IEA's Net Zero 2050 pathway is fully aligned with the Paris agreement's 1.5C goal, the authors concluded.
"Fossil fuel companies claim that we can continue to burn oil and gas while keeping to the 1.5C warming limit, and they cite their own scenarios as justification," said Bill Hare, CEO and Senior Scientist at Climate Analytics.
"But our research shows that their pathways would bust the Paris Agreement. Even temporarily exceeding the 1.5C warming would lead to catastrophic impacts and severely weaken our ability to adapt to climate change."
C.Cassis--PC