- Tunisia voting ends as Saied eyes re-election with critics behind bars
- Florida braces for Milton, FEMA head slams 'dangerous' Helene misinformation
- Postecoglou slams 'unacceptable' Spurs after 'terrible' loss at Brighton
- Marmoush double denies Bayern outright Bundesliga top spot
- Rallies worldwide call for Gaza, Lebanon ceasefire
- New 'Joker' film, a dark musical, tops N.America box office
- Man Utd stalemate keeps Ten Hag in danger, Spurs rocked by Brighton
- Drowned by hurricane, remote N.Carolina towns now struggle for water
- Vikings hold off Jets in London to stay unbeaten
- Ahead of attack anniversary, Netanyahu says: 'We will win'
- West Indies cruise to T20 World Cup win over Scotland
- Man Utd fire another blank in Aston Villa stalemate
- Lewandowski treble powers Liga leaders Barca to Alaves victory
- Russian activist killed on front line in Ukraine
- Openda strike briefly sends Leipzig top of Bundesliga
- Goal-shy Man Utd have to 'step up', says Ten Hag
- India bowl out Bangladesh for 127 in T20 opener
- Madueke rescues Chelsea in draw with 10-man Forest
- Beckett's belief rewarded as Bluestocking storms to Arc glory
- Trump on the stump, Harris hits airwaves in razor-edge US election
- Flash flooding kills three in northern Thailand
- Kaur leads India to victory over Pakistan in Women's T20 World Cup
- Juventus held by Cagliari after late penalty drama
- In France's Marseille, teen 'stabbed 50 times' then burned alive
- Ruthless Gauff beats Muchova in straight sets to win China Open
- India restrict Pakistan to 105-8 in Women's T20 World Cup
- England target repeat of Pakistan Test whitewash
- Penrith Panthers win fourth straight NRL title after downing Storm
- Weary Sinner happy for day off after battling into Shanghai last 16
- Pakistan's Masood warns England still a force without Stokes
- Madrid's Carvajal to miss several months after serious knee injury
- Two elephants die in flash flooding in northern Thailand
- Sabalenka targets world number one and Wuhan hat-trick
- Tunisia votes with Saied set for re-election
- Bagnaia sets 'example' with Japan MotoGP win to cut gap on Martin
- Intense Israeli bombing rocks Beirut ahead of war anniversary
- Mozambique vote: no suspense but some disillusion
- Austrian rapper channels anti-racist rage in Romani hip-hop songs
- Ohtani magic powers Dodgers over Padres in MLB playoff thriller
- Five of the best: Pakistan-England Test thrillers
- Man sets arm on fire as marches across US mark Gaza war anniversary
- Vietnam's young coffee entrepreneurs brew up a revolution
- Trump rallies at site of failed assassination: 'Never quit'
- Too hot by day, Dubai's floodlit beaches are packed at night
- Is music finally reckoning with #MeToo?
- Fans hail Trump's 'guts' as he returns to site of rally shooting
- Lebanon state media says Israeli strikes hit south Beirut
- Miami on track for MLS record points after win in Toronto
- Monaco take top spot in Ligue 1 with win at Rennes
- Madrid beat Villarreal to level Liga leaders Barca
War and inflation threaten world economy
The world economy's fragile recovery from the Covid-induced crisis is now threatened by Russia's war in Ukraine and soaring commodity prices.
Here are four questions regarding the risks to global GDP:
- Will growth stall? -
"The war happened right at a time when Europe and the US had a recovery that was going really well. Projections in Europe were among the highest ... (in) the last 20 years," said Jacob Kirkegaard, resident senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States in their Brussels office.
In just two weeks, the war has had a "material impact" on the economy, European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde said Thursday, revising the growth outlook for the eurozone to 3.7 percent for 2022, from 4.2 percent forecast in December.
The war and sanctions, which include a US ban on Russian oil imports, are raising prices of energy and other key commodities like wheat, fertilisers and metals to surge, International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva said.
That comes "on top of already high inflation," Georgieva said.
"We got through a crisis like no other with the pandemic. We are now in an even more shocking territory."
Credit rating agency S&P has cut its projection for global growth this year to 3.4 percent -- a decline of 0.7 percentage points over its earlier forecast due to the expected slump in Russia's sanctions-hit economy and rising energy costs.
Moreover, the cost of hosting Ukrainian refugees and budgetary aid will cost the European Union 175 billion euros ($192 billion), economist Jean-Pisani Ferry from the Paris-based Bruegel Institute think-tank said.
"I don't think that global economy will go into a recession," said Kirkegaard.
But he warned of the threat from stagflation -- persistently high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand.
- Why are prices soaring? -
Inflation has been rising worldwide for a year -- due to Covid-linked disruptions in supply chains, leading to a spurt in the prices of raw materials which have raised production costs.
The war has sent oil and gas prices soaring, threatening to worsen inflationary pressure.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told the US Congress that every $10 hike in oil prices would impact growth by 0.1 percentage points and add 0.2 percentage points to inflation.
The United States recorded 7.9 percent inflation in February -- a new 40-year high.
"We are facing an oil shock, a gas shock and an electricity shock. This has never happened together," said Thomas Pellerin-Carlin, director the Jacques Delors energy institute.
Apart from oil and gas, other key commodities have been affected, with prices of aluminium, nickel and wheat skyrocketing.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday warned of inflationary pressures worldwide as a result of the Western sanctions on his country.
Several key industries have already been hit, with several steel plants in Spain shutting down due to high energy prices.
Millions of households are finding it more expensive to travel, heat their homes and bring food to the table.
"The price of bread went up enormously" since the war began, said Omar Azzam, a Cairo resident, referring to a 50 percent hike in a country which is the world's top wheat importer.
- More stimulus on the way? -
Nations launched huge stimulus programmes to prevent their economies from crumbling after the pandemic emerged in 2020.
But government are loath to dig much deeper into public finances.
Aid will likely be more targeted. The G7 group of industrialised nations, for instance has called for massive support to households slammed by energy costs.
Emerging nations, however, will be more fragile and vulnerable to inflation and even political instability, experts warn.
- Is Covid still a threat? -
While many countries are easing Covid restrictions, China has been doing the opposite.
The world's second biggest economy on Friday locked down Changchun, a city of nine million people, to control a fresh wave of coronavirus.
If such measures continue, they will hit the world hard, warned Kirkegaard.
"The Chinese economy will slow dramatically, China will shut down whatever they need to shut down," he said.
"It is as big and unknown as the war in Ukraine because unlike Europe and the US that are able to live with Covid, it is certainly not the case in China," he said.
A.Santos--PC